The more President Donald Trump talks about his efforts to reach deals with America’s trading partners, the more confusing the tariff picture gets. His team seems good with that, saying Trump is using “strategic uncertainty” to his advantage. Trump says the United States does not have to sign any agreements, and that it could sign 25 of them right now. He says he is looking for fair deals on all sides, and that he does not care about other countries’ markets. He says his team can sit down to negotiate the terms of a deal, and that he might just impose a set of tariffs on his own. “I am struggling to make sense of it,” Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in an email. Late Wednesday on his social media site, Trump wrote that he’ll be holding a news conference Thursday morning concerning a “MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY.” He added that it would be “THE FIRST OF MANY!!!” Although Trump’s team holds up his best-selling book “The Art of the Deal” as proof that he has a master plan, much of the world is on tenterhooks. That has meant a volatile stock market, hiring freezes and all kinds of uncertainty even as Trump continues to promise that new factories and jobs are on the horizon. A look at how the trade talks may play out: Trump still wants tariffs As part of any deal, Trump wants to keep some of his tariffs in place. He believes the import taxes can generate massive revenues for a heavily indebted federal government even though other countries see the whole point of striking a deal as getting rid of tariffs. “They’re a beautiful thing for us,” Trump said recently about tariffs. “If you can use them, if you can get away with using them, it’s going to make us very rich. And we’ll be paying off debt, we’ll be lowering your taxes very substantially because so much money will be taken in that we’ll be able to lower your taxes even beyond the tax cut that you’re going to be getting.” So far this year, the U.S. government has collected $45.9 billion from tariffs, about $14.5 billion more than last year, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. Those revenues could escalate sharply given the 10% baseline tariffs, the 145% rate being charged on Chinese goods and rates as high as 25% on steel, aluminum, auto and Mexican and Canadian imports. To reach Trump’s stated goals of repaying the $36 trillion debt and reducing income taxes, his tariffs would need to raise at least $2 trillion annually without causing the economy to crash in ways that lead to lower overall tax revenues. That would be close to impossible mathematically. How do negotiations work? The Republican administration has said 17 of its major 18 trading partners have essentially presented them with term sheets, which list the possible compromises that they are prepared to make. Agreeing to a mutual understanding of the terms would be only the start of any trade talks. But foreign leaders have said it is unclear exactly what Trump wants or how deals could be codified into a durable agreement. They also know Trump approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2020, […]