Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, outpacing the rest of the field by a wide margin, according to a newly released J.L. Partners poll. Despite ongoing maneuvering by other prominent Republicans with ties to President Trump, Vance stands far ahead in voter preference.
In the survey conducted this May, 46% of registered voters expressed their intent to support Vance as Trump’s political heir. No other potential candidate came close to matching that level of enthusiasm, with none breaking into double digits.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis drew just 8% support in what would be a second attempt at the nomination, while Ohio’s current gubernatorial hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy polled at 7%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas each garnered 6%.
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and one-time ambassador to the United Nations, registered 5% in the same poll.
Vance, a graduate of Yale Law School and once a venture capitalist, rose to national prominence through his bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy in 2016. He later became a prominent voice in support of Trump and secured a U.S. Senate seat in 2022.
As the Republican National Convention kicked off in Milwaukee last summer, Trump named Vance as his running mate, praising the author for writing a book that “championed the hardworking men and women of our Country.”
Since then, the 40-year-old vice president has been a leading figure within the administration, especially on core issues such as immigration, trade, and cultural values, often speaking through the lens of his Catholic upbringing.
Meanwhile, Rubio, now 53, has taken on a key role within the Trump cabinet. In addition to serving as Secretary of State, he’s temporarily overseen several agencies including the National Archives, USAID, and the National Security Council.
Trump, during a March interview with NBC’s Kristin Welker on Meet the Press, spoke optimistically about the movement’s future, citing several potential leaders. “You look at Marco, you look at JD Vance, who’s fantastic,” he said.
“You look at — I could name 10, 15, 20 people right now just sitting here. No, I think we have a tremendous party,” Trump added.
Although Trump didn’t explicitly endorse Vance as his successor, the vice president’s cordial rivalry with Rubio hasn’t affected their friendship.
“He is probably my best friend in the administration,” Vance shared with Fox News. “We hang out and talk all the time.”
Ramaswamy briefly served as co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency during Trump’s transition period before stepping away as Trump returned to office. Speaking on the Lex Fridman Podcast last September, he left the door open for another presidential run before eventually declaring a campaign for Ohio governor this past February.
Caroline Mulvaney, a research manager at JL Partners, suggested that Vance is well-positioned to pick up even more support. “He can expect to gain further support from voters who are currently supporting individuals unlikely to end up on the 2028 ticket, as well as at least some support from voters who are currently undecided.”
If Rubio were to secure the nomination instead, 57% of Republican voters said they would be inclined to back him, the poll showed.
On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads the field with 30% support, despite her unsuccessful 2024 bid. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trailed far behind with 8%.
Governors Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gavin Newsom of California each drew 7%, while Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez earned 6% support among Democratic respondents.
There has been some speculation that Trump could seek a third term by running as vice president on a Vance-led ticket and then stepping into the presidency after a hypothetical resignation. However, congressional Republicans have dismissed the idea, citing constitutional limitations under the 22nd Amendment.
Both DeSantis and Haley ran against Trump in the 2024 primary, with DeSantis exiting after a distant finish in Iowa, and Haley ending her campaign following a series of Super Tuesday defeats.
Since then, neither of them has publicly indicated plans to try again in 2028.
Cruz, who famously beat Trump in Iowa during the 2016 race, has hinted at renewed interest in another run after skipping the last two presidential cycles.
When Donald Trump Jr. is added as a hypothetical candidate in the poll, Vance maintains his lead with 40%, while Trump Jr. leaps into second place with 14%, overtaking all other challengers.
JL Partners, one of the few polling firms to correctly forecast Trump’s 2024 popular vote victory, conducted the poll on May 13–14 with a sample of 975 registered voters. The reported margin of error is 3.1%.
{Matzav.com}